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UCDP Newsletter #11
ORGANIZED VIOLENCE IN THE WORLD
Insights from the UCDP Candidate Events Dataset for 2022
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Welcome to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) Newsletter!
The UCDP Candidate is a dataset consisting of events that are likely to be included in the final version of the UCDP Georeferenced Events Dataset (UCDP GED), which is released annually. As opposed to UCDP GED, UCDP Candidate is released on a monthly basis, and it is intended to provide researchers and policymakers with up-to-date data, while UCDP GED is intended to be used as a basis for long-term trends and statistical analysis. It is important to note that not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED, and new events will be added.
In 2022 we have two intensive large-scale armed conflicts in Ukraine and Ethiopia where reporting is difficult, both because of the intensity of the fighting and because access to important areas has been restricted. It is, therefore, likely that the numbers for 2022 will increase as more information becomes available. With that caveat in mind, we are now delighted to announce the availability of the UCDP Candidate Events Dataset for the year 2022. Please read more about our preliminary insights on organized violence in 2022 below.
If you have any queries, suggestions, or comments, please contact us at ucdp@pcr.uu.se.
Sincerely,
Magnus Öberg
UCDP Director
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Trends in Organized Violence in December 2022
Mert Can Yilmaz, Uppsala Conflict Data Program
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The fighting continued in eastern Ukraine in December 2022, causing at least 5000 fatalities.
Europe dominated the trend in fatalities due to organized violence, while we noted a downward trend both in that region and in Africa when compared to November 2022. In Asia, the Middle East, and the Americas, the intensity of violence remained at a similar level.
The five deadliest state-based conflicts in December were Russia - Ukraine, Somalia: Government, Burkina Faso: Government, Nigeria: Islamic State, and Pakistan: Government.
Conflicts between IS and JNIM in Mali affected the trends in non-state violence in December 2022, causing at least 270 fatalities. The clashes between the Jalisco Cartel New Generation and various other cartels in Mexico caused nearly 130 deaths during the month. In addition to Mali and Mexico, non-state violence in South Sudan was also noteworthy in December 2022.
DR Congo was significantly affected by one-sided violence in December 2022, with around 275 civilians deliberately killed by organized actors. IS was responsible for one-third of the one-sided casualties in the country. Yet, IS one-sided activity was not limited to that country. Its one-sided attacks in DR Congo, Syria, Iraq, Niger, Burkina Faso, Mozambique, and Afghanistan caused nearly 130 fatalities in total during this month. One-sided violence perpetrated by the Iranian government during the protests resulted in the death of over 240 civilians.
Source: UCDP Candidate 22.0.12
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Insights from the UCDP Candidate for 2022
Mert Can Yilmaz, Uppsala Conflict Data Program
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Globally, the number of fatalities resulting from organized violence rose significantly in 2022, according to UCDP Candidate data.
The preliminary estimates on the state-based conflict in Ethiopia between the government and the TPLF reach at least 100,000 battle-related deaths in 2022, while records from Ukraine point to as many as 70,000 deaths. It should be noted that globally, UCDP registered around 119,000 deaths in organized violence in 2021. In 2022, Ethiopia and Ukraine together had a larger number of fatalities than all conflicts in 2021.
Despite reaching the intensity level of war, the next three deadliest state-based conflicts in 2022 were less bloody than the two above. These were Somalia: Government, Yemen: Government, and Burkina Faso: Government conflicts.
Conflicts between the Jalisco Cartel New Generation and various other cartels in Mexico severely influenced the trends in non-state violence in 2022, causing at least 9000 fatalities. The clashes between IS and JNIM in Mali and Burkina Faso, as well as between IS and SDF in Syria, were among the other deadliest non-state conflicts in 2022. Clearly, Mexico had the highest non-state conflict burden in 2022.
DR Congo was significantly affected by one-sided violence in 2022, with at least 3400 civilians deliberately killed by organized actors. IS was responsible for a significant percentage, but the group's activities extended well beyond DR Congo. As the most brutal perpetrator of one-sided violence, killing at least 3600 civilians in 2022, IS engaged in one-sided violence in over ten other countries, most notably in Mali, Afghanistan, and Mozambique, aside from DR Congo. One-sided violence in Ukraine and Ethiopia may well be higher, but information available at the time of coding the UCDP Candidate data did not allow us to establish good estimates for these countries.
Source: UCDP Candidate 22.01.22.12
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The Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) is the world’s main provider of data on organized violence and the oldest ongoing data collection project for civil war, with a history of almost 40 years. Its definition of armed conflict has become the global standard of how conflicts are systematically defined and studied.
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Uppsala Conflıct Data Program
ucdp.uu.se
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