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UCDP Newsletter #15

 

MAJOR DATA RELEASES & CONFLICT IN SUDAN

New versions of the UCDP data now available!

Director's note

Welcome to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) Newsletter!

In this issue, we take a closer look at the patterns of organized violence in 2022 with our newly-released data. We also provide an in-depth analysis of the ongoing conflict in Sudan.

Today, we are delighted to announce the release of seven new versions of our annual datasets: UCDP Georeferenced Events Dataset v.23.1 (UCDP GED 23.1), UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset v.23.1, UCDP Dyadic Dataset v.23.1, UCDP Battle-related Deaths Dataset v.23.1, UCDP Non-State Conflict Dataset v.23.1, UCDP One-sided Violence Dataset v.23.1 and UCDP Actor Dataset v.23.1. As always, our datasets are available for free. Additionally, our UCDP encyclopedia has been updated with information for 2022, featuring comprehensive conflict narratives and detailed descriptions of the actors involved.

On April 15, 2023, Sudan was engulfed in a violent struggle for power between Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the head of the Sudanese Armed Forces, and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti, leader of the Rapid Support Forces. The conflict rapidly spread from Khartoum to several other regions, resulting in substantial casualties. Despite international mediation attempts, the situation remains volatile and is escalating. To learn more about this conflict, read below.

Your questions, suggestions, and feedback are highly appreciated. Feel free to connect with us at ucdp@pcr.uu.se.

Best regards,
Magnus Öberg
UCDP Director

Number of deaths in armed conflicts has doubled

Uppsala Conflict Data Program

According to UCDP 23.1 data, at least 237,000 people died in organized violence in 2022. This is a 97 percent increase compared with the previous year, and the highest number since the Rwandan genocide in 1994.

Together, the wars in Ethiopia and Ukraine resulted in at least 180,000 battle-related deaths in 2022. This is a low estimate as information from these conflicts is scarce and subject to extensive propaganda. The numbers are likely to be significantly revised as more information becomes available. Even so, the data shows that more people died in those two conflicts in 2022 than in the whole world the year before.

A common perception is that Russia’s war in Ukraine was the bloodiest conflict in 2022, but in fact, more people died in Ethiopia, where the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) fought the Ethiopian army.

In both Ethiopia and Ukraine, fighting has been characterized by trench warfare, with warring parties being accused of using human wave tactics. This type of warfare has contributed to the high casualty numbers.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 is the first large-scale interstate war in 20 years. Even if conflicts between states remain a relatively rare occurrence, they have increased in recent years. It has also become more common for external states to send troop support to rebel groups fighting against other governments.

The number of active conflicts in the world remains at a historically high level. UCDP registered 55 different conflicts where a state was involved on one or both sides during 2022. Albeit most conflicts are small, the number of wars increased from five in 2021 to eight in 2022. It should be noted that conflicts causing at least 1,000 battle-related deaths during one calendar year are considered wars.

The number of non-state conflicts also remains at a record-high level. UCDP registered 82 such conflicts in 2022. Nine of the ten deadliest non-state conflicts of the year occurred in Mexico, where rival drug cartels have fought each other over turf since the 1980s. Gang-related violence has also escalated in Brazil, Haiti, Honduras and El Salvador in recent years.

Furthermore, one-sided violence increased in 2022. At least 11,800 civilians were killed in this type of intentional, targeted violence carried out by 45 different states or organized groups. The actor killing most civilians in one-sided violence was the Islamic State (IS), but states also attacked civilians on a large scale in several conflicts. Russia and Eritrea both used extensive violence against civilians in the wars in Ukraine and Ethiopia.

frıends turned ınto enemıes: SUDAN CONFLICT 2023

Amber Deniz, Uppsala Conflict Data Program

Sudan plunged into a bloody armed conflict once again on 15 April 2023, repeating its history of violent power struggles. On one side stands Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the leader of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the de facto ruler of Sudan since the coup in 2021. On the other side is Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, widely known as Hemedti, who used to be al-Burhan’s number two and is considered one of the most powerful men in Sudan. Hemedti is the leader of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), an organization notorious for committing atrocities against civilians.

The fighting erupted in the capital city of Khartoum and subsequently spread to other cities across Khartoum state, the Darfur region, North Kordofan, Kassala, Gedarif, and the Red Sea states. Since then, fighting has continued in ‘Greater Khartoum’ and in Darfur, whereas other areas have been mostly calm. In the first two weeks of clashes, the fighting killed at least 500 people. Both sides have agreed to temporary ceasefires to facilitate the safe evacuation of civilians; however, the ceasefires have proved short-lived.

The relationship between al-Burhan and Hemedti has a long history. Both al-Burhan, under the command of the Sudanese army, and Hemedti, who was a key leader within the infamous Janjaweed militia (the collective name used for various Arab militia groups in Darfur), played crucial roles in the civil war in Darfur in the early 2000s. In 2013, parts of the Janjaweed militia were transformed into a paramilitary organization and established the name of RSF, with Hemedti assuming its leadership. In December 2018, a large-scale protest against al-Bashir’s government started in Sudan. After months of extensive demonstrations, the military stepped in and removed President Omar al-Bashir from power, bringing an end to his three-decade-long regime. A Transnational Military Council, headed by al-Burhan with Hemedti as his deputy, took power, but protests continued.

Following months of civil unrest and pressure from the African Union, the military council reached a power-sharing agreement with the civilian opposition in August 2019. The agreement stipulated that a Sovereign Council, comprising five militaries and five civilians, should lead Sudan until an election planned for 2022. However, al-Burhan and Hemedti staged a military coup in October 2021, dissolved the government and the Sovereign Council, and declared a state of emergency.

Following the 2021 coup, al-Burhan became the head of state of Sudan, and Hemedti became the deputy chair. Demonstrations against the military regime quickly erupted across Khartoum state. The SAF and RSF responded with a brutal crackdown on protesters, committing atrocities against civilians which further destabilized Sudan. Hemedti started distancing himself from al-Burhan, who increasingly aligned himself with the Islamist al-Bashir loyalists, while Hemedti grew closer to some civilian leaders. In the months following the coup, the military struggled to assert its power in the capital as the civilian uprising continued.

To stop the increasing tensions, international actors intervened to broker an agreement between the military and civilian leaders to transition into democracy. However, cracks between the two leaders widened as the agreement called for the integration of the RSF into the SAF. Al-Burhan and his army requested a two-year deadline for the integration and the assertion of control over RSF, which had increasingly become an independent organization with poor discipline. However, Hemedti rejected al-Burhan’s proposal and demanded a ten-year deadline to preserve his longstanding power and influence outside of the military’s control. Neither of the two leaders accepted a compromise; instead, both sides mobilized their forces in strategic locations, particularly in Khartoum.

The main trigger of the ongoing fighting was the mobilization of RSF troops near Merowe town in Northern state, a strategic location because of a military air base in the area, on 13 April 2023. Al-Burhan accused Hemedti of "unauthorized movements" and gave him an ultimatum to withdraw his troops. Despite efforts by international actors to deescalate the hostilities, full-scale fighting erupted on 15 April in Khartoum city. Hemedti quickly claimed he had taken control of Khartoum airport and the Presidential Palace, however, his claims remained unconfirmed. On 17 April, al-Burhan declared the dissolution of the RSF, labeling the force as a rebel militia. In the first two weeks of the fighting, the violence was primarily concentrated in heavily populated areas where both sides had military bases, headquarters or strategic positions.

At the time of writing, the fighting continues with increasing numbers of fatalities.

The Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) is the world’s main provider of data on organized violence and the oldest ongoing data collection project for civil war, with a history of almost 40 years. Its definition of armed conflict has become the global standard of how conflicts are systematically defined and studied.

UCDP

Uppsala Conflıct Data Program
ucdp.uu.se

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For your questions or comments, please contact us at ucdp@pcr.uu.se.

Don't forget to check out UCDP Encylopedia to read more about the conflicts around the world.

The UCDP is based at Uppsala University's Department of Peace and Conflict Research.

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