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The Nagorno-Karabakh region, a focal point of long-standing tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan, witnessed another chapter of conflict on 19-20 September, ending in the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh's surrender. The aftermath has seen tens of thousands of ethnic Armenians fleeing the region, prompting concerns about the future stability and peace in the South Caucasus.
Both modern-day Armenia and Azerbaijan became part of the Soviet Union in the 1920s. Nagorno-Karabakh, predominantly ethnically Armenian, was under Azerbaijani control. As the Soviet Union crumbled in the late 1980s, the region's parliament voted to join Armenia, sparking violent incidents and eventually a full-fledged war. After significant bloodshed, a Russian-brokered ceasefire in 1994 ended the active hostilities but not the underlying tensions. The 2020 war rekindled these tensions, leading to significant territorial gains for Azerbaijan.
The recent flare-up started on 19 September, and on 20 September, both parties agreed to a Russian-mediated ceasefire, halting a day of intense combat. UCDP recorded that over 430 people were killed during the clashes. Following the ceasefire, Armenian forces in the region were fully disarmed, and discussions about the integration of Nagorno-Karabakh into Azerbaijan began. Samvel Shahramanyan, the region's separatist leader, also declared the dissolution of the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh by the beginning of 2024, marking an end to their bid for independence. In the week following the ceasefire, over half of the estimated 120,000 ethnic Armenians fled the territory. This exodus raised concerns about ethnic tensions.
Regional powers, especially Turkey and Russia, have always been influential stakeholders in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Turkey, sharing cultural and historical bonds with Azerbaijan, has been an avid supporter, particularly in the 2020 conflict, where Turkish-made drones played a pivotal role.
Meanwhile, Armenia has traditionally aligned with Russia, hosting a Russian military base and being a part of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). However, recent developments have strained this alliance. Armenia's Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, criticized Russian peacekeeping efforts and questioned the benefits of CSTO membership. This, along with Armenia's recent tilt towards the West and its move to join the International Criminal Court, has elicited strong responses from Moscow.
Armenia and Azerbaijan have been making efforts to negotiate a peace treaty, and Pashinyan has recently conveyed his desire to finalize an agreement with Azerbaijan in the upcoming months. However, despite this commitment to peace, there seems to be still some challenges that need to be addressed.
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