Director's note

Welcome to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) Newsletter!

In this issue, we focus on trends in organized violence in January 2023, as well as on a long-standing territorial dispute that runs the risk of escalating. The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh (Armenian: Artsakh) is a long-standing territorial dispute tracing back to the early 20th century when the Soviet authorities incorporated the region dominated by the Armenian population into Azerbaijan as an autonomous oblast. Following failed attempts to reintegrate the enclave into Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh proclaimed itself an independent republic after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. In 1991, an armed conflict erupted between the Republic of Artsakh, supported by the Government of Armenia, and the Azerbaijani government. The Republic of Artsakh succeeded in consolidating its control over the region and territories along the Armenian border, and the First Nagorno-Karabakh War was halted by a ceasefire agreement in 1994. A relatively calm period followed, despite numerous ceasefire violations, and a brief conflict in April 2016. Nonetheless, in 2020, a full-fledged war erupted. In 2022, this frozen conflict also intensified for a brief period. Read more about the conflict below.

If you have any queries, suggestions, or comments, please contact us at ucdp@pcr.uu.se.

Sincerely,
Magnus Öberg
UCDP Director

Trends in Organized Violence in January 2023

Mert Can Yilmaz, Uppsala Conflict Data Program

The fighting continued in eastern Ukraine in January 2023, causing almost 1600 fatalities.

Africa dominated the trend in fatalities due to organized violence, while we noted an upward trend both in that region and in Asia when compared to December 2022. In the Americas, the intensity of violence remained at a similar level. A downward trend in the number of fatalities was observed in Europe and the Middle East.

The five deadliest state-based conflicts in January were Russia - Ukraine, Somalia: Government, Ethiopia: Oromiya, Nigeria: Islamic State, and Pakistan: Government.

The clashes between the Jalisco Cartel New Generation and various other cartels in Mexico caused over 220 deaths during the month. Non-state conflicts in Brazil and Nigeria were also noteworthy in January 2023.

DR Congo was significantly affected by one-sided violence in January 2023, with around 290 civilians deliberately killed by organized actors. URDPC and IS were responsible for more than half of the one-sided casualties in the country. In addition to DR Congo, IS was also active in one-sided violence in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Syria, Nigeria and Mozambique, deliberately targeting and killing almost 120 civilians in total during this month. One-sided violence perpetrated by JNIM in Burkina Faso resulted in the death of over 50 civilians.

Source: UCDP Candidate 23.0.1

THE LONG-STANDING NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT

Nanar Hawach, Uppsala Conflict Data Program

Two and a half years ago, the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh intensified, culminating in a full-fledged war. In July 2020, hostilities reached a new level of intensity, and by October 5, Azerbaijan launched a full-scale assault along the line of contact with the support of the Government of Turkey. The ceasefire period had been utilized by both sides to reinforce their military capabilities. Azerbaijan demonstrated clear ascendancy in terms of equipment, resulting in its superiority over the Republic of Artsakh and Armenia, despite the ostensibly comparable scale of their military expenditures*. Throughout the war, the Republic of Artsakh lost several territories along the border and within the region. The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War caused over 7 600 deaths, and clashes endured until a ceasefire was brokered by Russia on November 9.

While the conflict was still active in 2021, both sides adhered to the ceasefire agreement to a certain degree until 12 September 2022, when hostilities intensified, causing around 300 deaths in two days. Russia intervened in the conflict to prevent a potential military escalation. Russia’s ongoing war with Ukraine has made it difficult to provide sufficient support to Armenia and the Republic of Artsakh. Meanwhile, the support Azerbaijan receives from Turkey could possibly embolden it to escalate into an all-out war. Nevertheless, a ceasefire was reached between Armenia and Azerbaijan on September 14. Despite significant mediation efforts since the early 1990s, no peace agreement has been signed between the parties of the conflict.

* Schumacher, T. (2016). Armenia, Azerbaijan and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: why the 'black garden' will not blossom any time soon. Egmont Institute.

For your questions or comments, please contact us at ucdp@pcr.uu.se.

Don't forget to check out UCDP Encylopedia to read more about the conflicts around the world.

The UCDP is based at Uppsala University's Department of Peace and Conflict Research.

You have received this email because you have subscribed to the UCDP Newsletter. If you no longer wish to receive emails, please unsubscribe. Want to change how you receive these emails? Update your preferences.